Much Ado About US Corporate (NIPA) Profits — The Equity/Bond Ratio Or The S&P 500 Index Tells You All You Want To Know About Profits 4 comments

Financial market commentators sometimes misrepresent the relationship between payrolls, equity prices and NIPA Profits, a severely lagging variable. Taken at the core, concurrent profits drive real-time equity prices, but we won’t see that until one quarter later.

Martingales and Markets

Roulette is not a “fair” game, but it’s about as close as you can get in a casino. Assuming a standard wheel with 18 black slots, 18 red slots, and two green slots (0 and 00), your odds of hitting on black or red are 47.37% (18/38). The “house edge” is 5.26% as they will … More Martingales and Markets