Investors think they just want to make as much money as possible. If it were only that simple. Ask investors what they want from their investments, and most will say the answer is obvious: They want profits. Their answer may be obvious, but it probably isn’t true. Inside all of us are wants we don’t … More How Your Emotions Get in the Way of Smart Investing
The roller-coaster ride of the Chinese stock markets in the past 13 months reveals the snowballing effect of the actions of disparate players. The Shanghai Composite Index soared 150% over the past year before shedding 30% in a little more than three trading weeks. But neither the wild ride up nor down seems related to … More What’s Behind China’s Stock Market Gamble?
As others debate the question of man versus machine, Leda Braga focuses on the magic in the machines. The hedge fund industry’s top woman manager attributes her success to using data in a disciplined, consistent way that has allowed her to keep customers happy and establish her place in Wall Street’s boys’ club. Speaking Wednesday … More Systematica Founder Leda Braga on Machine Learning: Secrets of My Success
Commodity prices are very persistent. During booms we seem to forget that they have always (yes, always) been followed by busts (see Figure 1). And during a slump we forget that a boom is surely going to come along— we just have to wait long enough. What determines such booms and busts? Was the last … More What 100 Years of Commodity Prices Tells us About the Future
Two decades after 1995, the year of the Netscape IPO, the Internet population has exploded in size, it’s much more mobile, and it’s increasingly driven by user-created content and flexible content delivery that’s controlled by users. But growth is slowing in all but a few key areas. While some of these points seem obvious, Mary … More Code Conference 2015 Internet Trends
Greece is a remarkable country full of wonderful people, but along dimensions of development and governance, the place is plainly pretty messed up. It has been messed up that way for a long time, for decades at least. This has never been secret. Anyone who has visited Athens knows it has far more in common … More Greece – An Analysis of Moral Hazard
Why is finance so complex? “Why are we so good at creating complexity in finance?” The answer that comes up with is the “Flynn Effect“, basically the idea that there is an uptrend in human intelligence. Finance, in this view, gets more complex over time because financiers get smart enough to make it so. That’s … More Why is Finance So Complex?