Set of Characteristics to Identify Which Companies will Succeed

When Jeff Bezos founded an online bookstore in 1994, no one could have guessed that in less than 15 years, Amazon would fundamentally reshape the U.S. retail landscape. No one, that is, except Bezos himself: As Brad Stone’s book about Amazon, “The Everything Store,” makes clear, Bezos’s goal from the start was to change the … More Set of Characteristics to Identify Which Companies will Succeed

A Quantitative Approach to Tactical Asset Allocation

Much has happened in the world since the original publication of this white paper in 2006. However, change has always been the constant, and indeed has anything new really been seen in our world of investing? Bubbles, defaults, government interventions, bear markets, downgrades, quantitative easing, fortunes made and lost – they’ve all happened before. (For … More A Quantitative Approach to Tactical Asset Allocation

40% of all stocks have suffered a permanent 70 percent plus decline from their peak value

After a rough start to the new year, a lot of investors might be tempted to buy into “fallen angel” companies at or near all-time lows. They’re not hard to find. In the tech sector, GoPro (NASDAQ:GPRO) and Fitbit (NYSE:FIT), two profitable and recently public companies, have taken major hits. GoPro is down 90 percent … More 40% of all stocks have suffered a permanent 70 percent plus decline from their peak value

The Case For High Volatility Strategies

Which investment would you prefer to invest in to diversify your existing stock allocation? Asset A with an expected: 3% annualized return 3.5% annualized standard deviation 0.00 correlation with your existing investment Asset B with an expected: -5% annualized return > 50% annualized standard deviation 0.00 correlation with your existing investment Easy question right? Perhaps not. … More The Case For High Volatility Strategies

Financial Backtesting: A Cautionary Tale

  Consider the following market timing strategy, which we’ll call “daily momentum”: (1) If the market’s total return for the day, measured from yesterday’s close to today’s close, is positive, then  the market at today’s close and hold for one day. (2) If the market’s total return for the day, measured from yesterday’s close to … More Financial Backtesting: A Cautionary Tale

You Are Your Phone

The fact can no longer be avoided: You are your phone. The pattern of smartphone use is the pattern of the self. This is who you are: The Wall Street Journal reports today that Silicon Valley lending startups are looking to base personal loan decisions on analyses of data from individuals’ phones. The apps running … More You Are Your Phone

Hi, I’m from the games industry. Governments, please stop us.

  Hi, I’m from the games industry. Governments, please stop us. This may not be popular, but its how I feel. First, some background and disclaimers. I run a small games company making games for the PC, strategy games with an up front payment. We don’t make ‘free to play’ games or have micro transactions. … More Hi, I’m from the games industry. Governments, please stop us.